Kempton 15/7/20 5.10

5.10  Kempton 0-75 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr +  6f   10 run

Pace bias Led strongly favoured and advantage to Prominent

Led: Lordsbridge Boy

Prominent: Private Matter, The Right Choice , Mr  Buttons

Draw

Low Numbers favoured (Stalls 1 -4 ) Private Matter, Lordsbridge Boy, Inaam, Vegas Boy

Vegas Boy

Joined Gay Kellaway from Jamie Osborne after July 19. 2 runs this year both OK, reasonably fancied last time in V1. Small field at Newmarket (Class 4) and looked well beaten after showing some promise on stable debut at Chelmsford. Has won 3 times on  the AW off 58, 71 and 81, today runs off 75. 5 runs here 3 times placed.  Trainer 1/22 in last month but 1/10 in last 14 days. Interesting jockey booking 1/7 for Marquand/ Kelleway. 

Inaam

Beaten 3 ¼  lengths on seasonal debut over CD ran on in dying stages to grab 5th.  Won at Wolves on previous run in November off 67, today races off 73. 7 wins have all come on the AW has won off 79 in 2017.  Poor record at KP 0/6 with no placed efforts either. Trainer 1/10  (14/1 winner at Windsor)  in the last month. Kirby keeps the ride 2/15 in the last year for J Butler.

Private Matter  

Three runs since lockdown, 2 AW starts were OK, one at KP led till the 1 f pole but then faded into 4th (just ahead of Inaam) but latest run was a poor show on the turf at Haydock. Overall (2/29 turf 1/11 AW) AW win was at Southwell off 69. (Today 73). Two 4th places here.  Trainer in good form at present 3/19 over 14 days and 6/35 over the last 30. Jockey Jack Mitchell also in good heart 10/26 in last 2 weeks.   3/16 for Amy Murphy.

Griggy

Three AW runs in June reasonably fancied in all three, horse is generally held up and comes with a late burst, has hung a little in 2 of the last three runs. Last win was at Chelmsford off 65, one placed effort here off 70 when drawn 3.  Trainer 1/9 for last month but has a good record here 4/16 over the last 5 years.  Same ownership at Inaam.   

Turn To Rock

Well beaten last on seasonal debut at Doncaster (first ever turf run, first run for Jedd O’Keefe). Prior to this won at Kempton for Ed Walker,  showed a nice turn of foot in B1 when dropping back to 6f. Ran off  67 then, runs off 70 here. Not blinkered today. Trainer in reasonable form 6/49 for the last month showing a profit. Jack Garrity has a good record for trainer 10/79 again showing a decent profit.

Sepahi

Four runs since the resumption and won first two here and at Wolverhampton, decent effort then here but a poor run early in July at Chelmsford (trapped wide with no cover).  Didn’t have enough speed to catch the winner here in June but wasn’t hard ridden once 2nd had been achieved beat Mr Buttons. Win at Wolves was off 64 and here off 59. Runs off 70 today. Overall here 1/4 with best efforts most recently (last 5 outings were for S Keightley).  Trainer 1/23 in the last month (winner tonight at Ripon). David Probert 2/4 for trainer and rode this horse for last rides.

Mr Buttons

Just the one run this year in June when 4 length 4th  in a similar event here. Was well positioned and then last lead in closing stages. Just the one win at Southwell in a novice event when trained by Richard Fahey. Now down to lowest mark (69) after being given 77.  Trainer has only had 3 runs this month no wins so far.

The Right Choice

Well beaten favourite at Yarmouth (7f) last time (1/17 on turf) over the winter ran some good races at Southwell and Newcastle being placed on all 4 runs. However runs off 68 here (rated 58 on turf). Slow surfaces may suit. Only one run here when trained by Richard Fahey in 2018.  Trainer in excellent form 2/5 in last 14 days  also does well here 3/11 over last 5 years. Hector Crouch is going well too 6/23 in last 14 days comes up in class.

Sea Fox

Three poor runs since the resumption and not much to cheer prior to that, won in 2019 off 75 and 76 both at Wolves has won here off 85. 7lb claimer now employed (1/4 for trainer). Trainer running OK.

Lordsbridge Boy

Made season debut at Windsor ¾ length 3rd having been close up until 50 yds out, well clear of 4th, before that ran well at Kempton and won here in October off 62 runs off 64 tonight, made all that night so this has the pace angle from stall 2.

 Summary

My value odds in brackets

Lordsbridge Boy looks a solid proposition (7/2) also of interest are Turn To Rock (8) Sepahi  (10) Private Matter (12)The Right Choice (20)

Actual odds

Lordsbridge Boy 4

Turn To Rock 9

Sepahi 14

Private Matter 17/2

The Right Choice 9

Result

  1. Sephahi 15/2
  2. Turn To Rock 22/1
  3. Lordsbridge Boy 3/1 F
  4. The Right Choice
  5. Vegas Boy
  6. Private Matter

    Straight Forecast 157.90 Tricast 617.92

Author: kpnut2

Hi I'm a big fan of AW racing especially at Kempton. If you are looking for a regular and reliable set of tips for a card - let me know !

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