KP Nut for short is the blog site for a host of tips, news and events at one of the UKs top horse racing tracks. Kempton Park.
My name is Colin Hord and I’ve been watching and betting on horse racing for over 30 years . I’ve been going to Kempton Park regularly since it became an All Weather track. I enjoy AW racing and I hope by reading this you will share my enthusiasm for the racing there.
The next meeting is not for a few weeks so check back soon for a few selections and then a review of the racing I am sure there will be a few that caught my eye.
A poor effort last week so have stuck with a few more obvious ones tonight. I think it could be a good night for John Gosden, we shall see. Good Luck to you all.
16.40 Class 5 Novice Stakes 2 Yr Old 7f
A 7f 2 yr old event, three of these have raced previously, Sarsaparilla for John Gosden disappointed here when 5/2 never really got into the race after being slow away. Basilicata is the other with form 2nd at Goodwood run for Mark Johnston with William Buick aboard. Of those unraced the SBS Gold Wing and Ralph Beckett’s Iconic Queen are of interest
Selection: Basilicata (2.5) Next Best: Iconic Queen (6.0)
17.10 Class 5 Handicap 3 Yr Old 6f
There’s a quartet here with last time winning form. Gigi’s Beach however has also been in good form and won here early on in the month off 58 (now off 67). This longer straight may help him. Of the last time winners Tommy Rock looked impressive at Wolverhampton Adam Kirby rides for Clive Cox who has a decent record here and for second time handicap starters.
Selection: Tommy Rock (4) Next Best: Gigi’s Beach (7.0)
17.40 Class 5 Novice Stakes 3 Yr Old + 1m 4f
La Dragontea ran 80/1 4th in the Lingfield Oaks Trial on that form she looks good enough to win this here. Katara ran OK at Yarmouth but Delta Royalty has winning form here and for that reason is the next best. As always any John Gosden runner here needs to go into the equation keep an eye on Tao Te Chin in the market.
Selection: La Dragontea (3.5) Next Best: Delta Royalty (4.3)
18.10 Class 5 Maiden Fillies Stakes 4 Yr Old + 7f
John Gosden has kept Red Centre in training after finishing lame at Newcastle in November2018 and with a 30% SR for horses off a 60+ day layoff some market movement would be of interest. Hey Gracie has joined the Beckett yard (from Mark Usher), winning on stable debut here. This looks the one to be with here.
Selection Hey Gracie (4.0) Next Best Red Centre (7.5)
18.45 Class 5 Novice Stakes 3 Yr Old + 1m 4f
Coltrane is the one that immediately catches the eye here second to Almighwar here and producing a decent speed figure. There will plenty of interest in Strawberry Rock who won nicely on debut when well fancied, this event looks stronger and preference is for the one with course form. James Doyle 2/6 with John Gosden over the last year.
Selection Coltrane (3.0) Next Best Strawberry Rock (3.5)
19.15 Class3 Handicap 4Yr Old + 1m 4f
Good Tidings unseated his rider last time after 5f, he has some useful Kempton form last year and now returning here could spark a bit of a revival. Space Walk comes down in class to a Class 3 while he has no Kempton form he has run at Chelmsford (second of six) in August. Jockey Tom Marquand 20% for William Haggas.
Selection Good Tidings (5.5) Space Walk (11)
19.45 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m
There are 5 that appear on my short list, front runner King’s Highway could do if from the front even from a wide draw. Beaten favourite Dargel was in good heart last season, first time off a wind operation. River Dawn ran OK at Pontefract but never settled. This leaves Jack D’Or who appears in good heart and has the bonus of Oisin Murphy aboard. However preference is for Merchant Of Venice who has a good record at Kempton another eye catching jockey booking Fanshawe / Marquand are 28% over the last year.
Selection Merchant Of Venice (12) Jack D’Or (4.0)
20.15 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 2m
True Destiny ticks a lot of boxes in this event with form over course, distance going etc etc, he has been in good form finishing closeup in his last 6 events. Trainer in good heart trainer and jockey ride 20% winners. Expectation is that Blame It On Sally will come on for the run especially if can get a clear passage as there are only 6 runners.
Selection True Destiny (4.5) Blame It On Sally (6.0)
20.45 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 6f
Just two here that are of interest Marvel who has finished second on his last 6 starts, interesting to see that Andrea Atzeni takes the ride for the first time his firm handling should make the difference here. However the selection is Global Hope for Gay Kellaway and Oisin Murphy horse ran well on reappearance and despite this mark should get in front of Marvel once again !
More action at Kempton Tuesday evening – 26 races in four days!! Plenty of winners in the blog for Sunday shame more were not marked as the selection if you had backed all 18 of the selections and next bests you would have shown a profit.
16.55 Class 5 Fillies Novice Stakes 2 Yr Old 6f
Of the 8 on show here only one Paige’s Raptor has raced previously didn’t show anything at Yarmouth and doesn’t enter calculations. The one that does is Glesga Gal a 120,000 Euro foal drawn 1 and trained by Hugo Palmer who has a 15% strike record (1.18 A/E) Of the others Roger Varian’s Authentic Symphony should go well. It will be interested to see what the market makes of Sir Michael Stoute’s Ville De Grace.
Selection: Glesga Gal (2.25) Next Best: Authentic Symphony (3.0)
17.25 Class 5 Novice Stakes 2 Yr Old 6f
With just 4 runners this will be win only for those taking on the placepot. Three of the 4 have raced just the once, Zaisan is trained by Archie Watson and has a 26% SR (1.1 A/E) for horses having their second start and must feature in any placepot permutation. If pushed for a second pick Roger Varian’s Haseef should improve after an ordinary debut, good to see Jim Crowley aboard.
Selection: Zaisan (1.8) Next Best: Haseef (3.0)
17.55 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 6f
Sepahi and Englishman have won their last two, Magicinthemaking also won 2 of his last three, wasn’t fancied last time on reappearance. Sepahi’s trainer does well with LTO winners 11/29, won here on the 3rd June and followed up at Wolves up 6lbs for that win, however not sure there is sufficient pace in the race for him. Englishman comes back to Kempton (1/2) and only has a 4lb rise. Mr Buttons makes his seasonal debut Linda Stubbs doesn’t have too many runners at Kempton those that do come here generally do OK.
Selection: Englishman (3.5) Next Best: Mr Buttons (10)
18.25 Class 5 Maiden Fillies Stakes 4 Yr Old + 7f
Saeed Bin Suroor has a 20% SR for 3 Yr Old Fillies at Kempton you won’t get rich backing them but his Dubai Quality is the likeliest winner and will almost certainly be odds on as he was 4/9 F on debut at Wolves recording a decent enough time behind Ivan Furtado’s Noble Dawn. As the main danger Hugo Palmer’s Combine should show more after a debut on Yarmouth’s heavy turf. Ryan Moore a plus.
Selection Dubai Quality (1.66) Next Best Combine (3.0)
18.55 Class 5 Maiden Fillies Stakes 4 Yr Old + 7f
Nothing that has previously run has shown a great deal of form or recording any decent times. For that reason it may be worth looking at John Gosden’s debutant Aureum (15% SR for 2 Yr Old at Kempton) or Ralph Beckett’s Sun Tide 14% SR (and shows a profit 1.05 A/E).
Selection Aureum (3.0) Next Sun Tide (7.0)
19.25 Class Handicap 4Yr Old + 1m
River Dawn was a big drifter near the off for his seasonal debut at Pontefract, now back on the AW this looks more suitable. Atletico has finished less than 2 lengths off the lead for his last 6 races doesn’t win too often (3/57) but his consistency is admirable, today he comes up in grade and has a great chance of getting some more place money here.
Selection River Dawn (6.0) Atletico (11)
19.55 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m 3f
Plenty with question marks against their name here. Confils has only 1 AW run and is 0/0 here. Craneur ran poorly at the end of the season and trainer is 1/17 so far this season however Jim Crowley is aboard. Sea Tide (Mrs Mongan) is another with trainer doubts (0/9). The two that get the vote are Crimson King who ran very poorly last time, perhaps he needed the run. The other is Amanda Perret’s Double Legend who is back to his favourite track (2/10) after a poor run at Lingfield earlier this month. It will be interesting to see the betting market on this event !
Selection Desert Legend (9.0) Crimson King (5.5)
20.25 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m 4f
Five on the short list Sociologist has never raced at Kempton and Barry McHugh makes a rare visit should be the pace angle here. Dyagilev beaten favourite the last two occasions placed here 3/5 starts another that tends to race up front. Herm never picked up at Lingfield, placed on only start here, trainer is in good form. Hammy End often finishes second or third just the one win from 13 doesn’t appear to want to get his head in front. Muraaqeb is trained by Milton Bradley who has had a winner from 10 starts so far looks of interest and make that the selection.
Selection Muraaqeb(9.0) Dyagilev (6.0)
20.55 Class 6 Handicap 3 Yr Old 1m 4f
Just two here that are of interest Camouflaged won well here with Adam Kirby , he got a bump at Lingfield next time and never settled after that clearly in good heart and has to be in the mix at the close. Anno Lucis was 2/4 lengths behind Camouflaged when making handicap debut, Sir Mark is well known for his handicap debutants, however it is worth noting his second time in a handicap runners he shows a 26% win rate with an A/E of 1 and an IV of 2.6
Here is my look at Sunday’s card. Dramatic Sands is the one that rates the NAP. Really missing the action at the track, TV viewing is not for me….
13.25 Class 5 Maiden Stakes 2 Yr Old 6f
Only those who have already raced make any appeal here. Enduring finished 5 ¼ lengths behind The Lir Jet at Yarmouth that should be good enough to win this although Richard Hughes’ Shine The Light has the potential after a decent run at Wolverhampton. Interestingly Willie Muir (Mitrosonfire) has a very poor record of horses having their second start 0/24.
Selection: Enduring (2.25) Next Best: Shine The Light (3.0)
13.55 Class 5 Maiden Fillies Stakes 2 Yr Old 7f
With just 6 runners this appears to be between last time second Baby Sham who’s trainer does very well with horses running with less than 7 day break and Archie Watson’s debutant Gallardise. Alpine Springs doesn’t appeal as the stable is off the boil at the moment (2/43) since the resumption.
Selection: Baby Sham (2.375) Next Best: Gallardise (2.5)
14.25 Class 6 Handicap 3 Yr Old 7f
Four of these go onto the short list, topweight Feel Good Factor ran well in a Class 5 event here didn’t find a lot in the closing stages but stayed on well for second, 5lb claimer now aboard. Le Reveur runs for Sir Mark Prescott shown absolutely nothing in three runs but makes his handicap debut keep and eye on the betting ! Annie Quickstep comes back to a mile after running this month wasn’t beaten far, Rob Hornby back in the plate. The final to look at is Cool To Be A Cat was 4/1 on handicap debut after showing very little in the qualifying races was well beaten over 10f and comes back in trip today, notably Cieran Fallon rides
Selection: Feel Good Factor (4.3) Next Best: Annie Quickstep (5.0)
14.55 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 7f
Another 7f event two of these are last time winners who both have inside draws, In The Red won when heavily backed (had been last on his previous 9 starts) trainer stated that the improved (?) form was due to a return to Kempton where the horse is 3/9 with 2 placed efforts. The Game Of Life won at Chelmsford earlier this month stayed on well, pieces remain on. Treble Clef is one of two for Lee Carter he is making his second run in a handicap should be there or there abouts.
Selection The Game Of Life (4.0) Next Best Treble Clef (8.0)
A very competitive event, Desert Peace runs in a handicap for the first time, he won here on debut and the Charlie Appleby is 25% for handicap debutants. Queen Gamrah is another that looks of interest especially with Jim Crowley in the saddle he is 4/16 for Mark Johnston, his run at Haydock doesn’t look that good but this horse appears to prefer the AW and has won over CD.
Selection Queen Gamrah (6.0) Next Desert Peace (4.3)
15.55 Class 4 Handicap 3Yr Old 1m
Division II doesn’t look any easier, however there appears to be more pace in this race one of which Dramatic Sands looks to have a good chance especially as Hollie Doyle is once again in the saddle. He won here in a handicap off 80 and now races of 83. Another that shows pace from the gate is Cognac William Buick rides this for Mark Johnston and makes his handicap debut, no AW form but some good runs so far.
Selection Dramatic Sands (4.0) Cognac (6.0)
16.25 Class 5 Novice Stakes 3 Yr Old 1m 4f
Twelve maidens in this novice event, John Gosden has Almighwar didn’t show much on debut in a Newmarket maiden late last year but stable and jockey (Jim Crowley) are in great form. One with slightly better form is Tamaris Roger Charlton does well here and this looks the type to improve on his initial run here. Charlton is 17% for second starters. Keep an eye on Ralph Beckett’s debutant Pagaille his record with debutants is 15% just fractionally lower than his overall SR (good A/E and IV values too !!)
Selection Tamaris (3.5) Almighwar (4)
16.55 Class 3 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m 4f
Palavechino will be short order here after a decent win here 9 days ago, he won in February and is on a roll. However he comes up in class and may be worth opposing if very short in the betting. The two that also have some good chance is Emirates Knight who drops in class after a close up 4th over 11f here back in November. The other to consider is City Tour has run really well here so can easily ignore last run at Lingfield.
Selection Emirates Knight (4) City Tour (10)
17.30 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 2m
Vibrance was a disappointing favourite last time coming home third at 2/5 ! Has a good record here but will need to bounce back from that performance. Casa Comigo has plenty going for him who also goes well here and ran last time on turf, this looks much more his type of race.
Plenty of races at Kempton this weekend with cards on Saturday and Sunday. Here is my look at Saturday’s card. My idea of a value price is in brackets.
16.50 Class 5 Novice Stakes 2 Yr Old 6f
Spark Fury from the Richard Hannon yard is the obvious starting point here, others that are worth noting are John Gosden’s Sarsaparilla, Ralph Beckett’s Rhoda’s Choice and Archie Watson’s Perfect Dream all look like they will have benefitted from their first outings. Gosden’s 32% SR for second start horses is impressive.
Selection: Spark Fury (2.5) Next Best: Sarsaparilla (3.0)
17.20 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 6f
Seneca Chief has been in impressive form since the resumption winning both his starts, but now has a further 5lbs to carry, this doesn’t look like this will stop him winning another, however the odds are likely to be prohibitive. Bernie’s Boy was a selection when he ran here last week, he also ran at Chelmsford behind Seneca Chief he is consistent at this level and should be placed once again. However as the next best is Maid Millie who ran well at Chelmsford and won on his last start here.
Selection: Seneca Chief (3.0) Next Best: Maid Mille (7.0)
17.55 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 7f
Just An Idea won last time at Chelmsford while he doesn’t appear the type to follow up having won once for each of the last 4 years however amongst this opposition he has a fair chance ! Lacan also won last time after falling a mile in the weights, he has another 4lbs again, can’t see much else here.
Selection: Lacan (3.0) Next Best: Just An Idea (5.0)
18.25 Class 5 Maiden Stakes 2 Yr Old 7f
Not a lot of form here to review, Barber Of Seville for John Gosden finished down the field at Newmarket that form looks OK and may well be good enough to win this, remember backing every John Gosden runner here over the last 5 years makes a profit. Reset Button was 9th of 12 here he was 66/1 that day and expect similar odds today. Andrew Balding has the best record for first time starters amongst the trainers here so will make Recovery Run the next best.
Selection Barber Of Seville (2.5) Next Best Recovery Run (4.0)
Chloellie goes really well here 5 wins, 5 places from 13 starts, she was in good form before the lockdown winning at Wolverhampton and running a good race here to finish second. She also looks to have been given some leniency from the handicapper after a few disappointing runs last autumn. The good news is that David Probert is back aboard as he has been riding on 4 of her wins. The other is Gregorian Girl who goes well here (2/5) Dean Ivory is having a slow start but usually does OK with horses off a lay off, he makes good use of Sophie Ralston (they are 7/68 when combined).
Selection Chloellie (4.0) Next Gregorian Girl (11.0)
19.25 Class 4 Handicap 4Yr Old + 1m 3f.
Two here have won their last two starts, Olympic Conqueror and Secretario, both are interesting and have a good chance of a hattrick but the value may come from Starfighter who ran at Newmarket earlier this month but has done much better here with two close up third places. As the next best the pick is Agent Zigzag who has his second start for Paul Webber after running in Ireland (winning twice). This run was here and caught the eye and he should come on for the run.
Selection Starfighter (7.0) Agent Zigzag (13)
19.55 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m
Swiss Cheer won here on his last start over CD, that looked good with the horse quickening near to the line beating Fortune And Glory who has won both his next two starts. As next best the Rebecca Menzies runner Tough Remedy finished 3rd in the race won by Swiss Cheer and was beaten 3/4 length, didn’t show much on seasonal debut at Newcastle and hoping that return to Kempton will help, although the trainers record here is poor.
Selection Swiss Cheer (3.5) Tough Remedy (9)
20.25 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m
We can expect to see Cristal Pallas Cat go off in front now reunited with the much improved regular pilot Rhiain Ingram, whether he can stay there is another matter ! His last win in August 2019 was off 46 and today is off 48 so may need to come down a couple of pounds for that reason the selection will be Mabo who ran well earlier this month at Wolverhampton only being beaten a head, he is not a regular visitor to Kempton but has won one of his three runs, in fact his last win came here in October 2019. The other that deserves a mention is Lady Morpheus he ran a decent race here back in January that was from a wide draw and stayed on nicely interesting to see what the market makes of this one’s chances.
Another good day on Wednesday with winners across both the selection and the next bests, if you had backed all 18 selections there was a profit to be had. Today there are only 6 races and fewer runners so let’s see if there is a winner or two amongst the picks. Good luck.
16.30 Class 5 Maiden Fillies 3 Yr Old + 1m
Not an ideal race to get involved with but for those looking at a Placepot the 2 Gosden runners should be considered, Wolflet has already run this season and looked tenderly handled so will improve for that, Paradise On Earth is his other runner and makes her debut, Nicky Mackay does well here and has a good relationship with JG. Two others have some good trainer stats, they are French Battle and one that looks interesting for John Best who has a good record for stable changers who has Princess Carly.
Selection: Wolflet (3.0) Next Best: Paradise On Earth (5.0)
17.05 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 1m
Holiday Magic when trained by Charlie Appleby won three on the spin here, however that was in 2014 ! He then went to Mick Easterby and is now having his 6th run for Lee Carter, during which he has had 2 wins, one here and one at Lingfield. He ran last week and that may have got him straight and could well win this, a market check is needed ! The other that may be worth considering is Penarth Pier who won here when making all from Stall 3, if he uses these tactics again it could result in a win although this is 1m.
Selection: Holiday Magic (8.0) Next Best: Penarth Pier (17.0)
17.35 Class 5 Nov Stakes 3 Yr+ 1m 3f
There are three winners in the field Where’s Tom, Yuri Gagarin and Prince Imperial. Hard to get too enthusiastic about Where’s Tom although the trainer knows how to get a runner ready off a break. John Gosden runs Yuri Gagarin and this looks a possibility to follow up his Newcastle win. However, it is Sir Michael Stoute’s Prince Imperial that appears to have the best form credentials and will make that the selection. One other to consider is Richard Hannon’s Cityzen Serg who was just beaten on the line last time at Wolves in March.
Selection Prince Imperial (2.375) Next Best Cityzen Serg (3.5)
Little form of any substance here and again not a race to get that involved with, however those that would be of more interest here are Owen Burrow’s Hamdan Al Maktoum debutant Hawaajis, the other is Marco Botti’s runner Harbour Of Grace who ran earlier this month at Newcastle didn’t show a great deal but should improve for that.
Selection Hawaajis (2.5) Next Harbour Of Grace (8.0)
18.35 Class 4 Handicap 3Yr Old 1m 4f.
Only 6 go to post, however the Ralph Beckett runner Jellystone will be a worthy favourite in this race, a recent winner at Yarmouth which won readily should be able to follow up. However, there are two other last time winners in the race, Harry Dunlop has Angel On High, he does well with runners here. The one that could go well is the Crisfords’ Finely Tuned they do well with first time handicap starters so worth a look when the betting arrives.
Selection Jellystone (2.1) Finely Tuned (8.0)
19.05 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 2m
Thirteen contenders here, Devizes could run well at a reasonable price, ran well here on penultimate start back in November, ran last week at Lingfield over shorter which should have served as a pipe opener, trainer doesn’t have the greatest record here and nor does jockey who has yet to have a winner since 1/6/20. For the next best a chance is taken with Valkenburg who doesn’t look the most straightforward but has shown glimpses of ability of this trip, if he’s willing this could be his day Cieran Fallon has the task of coaxing him around..
Three winners from the selections on Wednesday evening, with a good win for the NAP at 13/2 Burmese Waltz. Maiden and novice races are particularly difficult to weigh up, no doubt that market indications provide clues as to the readiness of the contenders. Let’s see what we can find on Friday. Good luck.
12.15 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 5f
Races round the inner 5f track at Kempton are all about pace, with such a short straight those held up invariably cannot get sufficient momentum to reach the leaders. Three of these have already raced this season of those King Robert could well be the answer runs close to the pace and has a good draw in 3, ran OK at Lingfield last time. The other that looks a possible is Becker a CD winner here and again ran well last week at Lingfield now has Oisin Murphy in the saddle, run style not so appealing but form looks solid.
Selection: King Robert (4.75) Next Best: Becker (3.25)
12.45 Class 5 Nov Stakes 2 Yr Old 6f
Messrs Johnston Tate and Varian bring debutants here, Mark Johnston is flying so will make his Beverage the next best. James Tate has had one winner and 2 placed 2 year olds from 8 starts. The selection will be Tom Ward’s Star Of Deauville he makes use of Tom Marquand and they are 4/19 Ward’s horses are also in good form and despite a relatively few runners they do well here 4/20.
Selection: Star Of Deauville (6.0) Next Best: Beverage (3.0)
13.15 Class 5 Nov Stakes 3 Yr+ 6f
The betting is likely to concentrate around the two winners in the field, Its A Given and Theotherside. Its A Given runs for Roger Charlton and is owned by Khalid Abdulla he ran from a wide draw at Chelmsford and this looks a decent prospect. Theotherside won easily at Newbury in a better class event. Of those unraced Henry Candy brings a £100K guineas three year old, he is 0/11 this season and 0/43 for first time starters over 5 years so one to avoid.
Selection Its A Given (3.25) Next Best Theotherside (2.5)
Backing everyone of John Gosden’s runners at Kempton over the last 5 years results in a 25point profit. He runs Royal Mews a Godolphin debutant runner, which cost £350K euros. There is one horse with some decent form Raatea and recorded some reasonable Racing Post Ratings, speed figures look average though. Roger Varian (Semser) and Andrew Balding (Top Drop) also make their debuts. However it is Conscious, nother Roger Charlton / Khalid Abdullah runner that will be the selection, PJ McDonald has the ride.
Selection Conscious (9) Next Raatea (2.5)
14.15 Class 5 Maiden 3Yr Old + 1m
Dubai Mirage will be short order here having run well in a Class 2 maiden event at York, although the form of which hasn’t worked out that well but was given a useful RPR and TS. Emaraty Hero is the other with some form on the AW with a 74 RPR from Newcastle. Swinley Forest could also be considered but has had a few runs now.
Selection Dubai Mirage (1.9) Emaraty Hero (5.0)
14.45 Class 4 Handicap 3 Yr 1m3f
John Gosden runs To Nathaniel who won here over 12f in January, held a Derby entry so obviously held in good stead. JG does well with horses first time in a handicap and this looks the type to progress. The owner G Strawbridge is one of the few owners that you can often make a profit backing all his runners each year. The other to look at is last time winner Sword Beach for the Eve Johnson Houghton yard he won a Class 3 novice auction event at York, the handicapper didn’t feel the need to adjust the handicap mark. 6 of the runners are running in a handicap for the first time so a race to tread carefully.
Selection To Nathaniel (3.5) Sword Beach (6.0)
15.15 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr + 1m 3f
Ten go to post and of these 5 won last time, two of these have had long lay offs, however it is My Boy Sepoy and Dreamweaver that look of more interest. My Boy Sepoy has been running here over 11 and 12f, placed twice and now has Oisin Murphy aboard. Dreamweaver comes down in class having not shown anything in a Class 2 Newmarket having a win and a second Class 5 races at Newcastle and Lingfield.
Selection Dreamweaver (13.0) Next Best My Boy Sepoy (11.0)
15.45 Class 3 Fillies Handicap 3 Yr + 7f
Afraid Of Nothing ran at Chantilly in a listed race on her last run, before that she won twice at Epsom has been raised 8lbs for that win, Oisin Murphy takes the ride he is 1/8 for Ralph Beckett. The other that catches the eye is the consistent Delilah Park who has been running well over 7f here, Jack Mitchell has formed a good partnership with Chris Wall and are now 7/18. Chris Wall’s form off a layoff is not as strong as R Beckett’s.
Selection Afraid Of Nothing (3.0) Next Best Delilah Park (7.0)
16.15 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr Old + 6f
Tony Carroll is still to have a winner since the restart, his Under Curfew is top weight here and has some reasonable form and the second last week looks of interest, however his recent win was over 5f at Lingfield so it may pay to look elsewhere. Bernie’s Boy is 1/6 here winning over a mile maiden when trained by Andrew Balding. However the jockey booking of Ben Curtis is of interes. Last week’s winner Who Told Jo Jo will appeal to many but has poor overall stats to be attractive here. Jaganory is the another that a case can be made but this trainer’s horses usually need a run.
Selection Bernies Boy (6.0) Next Best Under Curfew (5)
Another bumper card at Kempton which has been reviewed below, hopefully it highlights a few live ones, as last week these now have a value price which will help indicate when this is worth having a bet or perhaps to increase stakes. A review of these will take place later in the season (note all the results are put on the blog so readers can see the results). Please note my analysis takes place before looking at any odds or RP Spotlight. Good luck to all those betting tonight.
17.00 Class 5 Maiden 2 Yr Old 5f
Races like this provide an opportunity to compare the various trainer stats, which shows that only Sylvester Kirk has a good A/E value for recent form, 5 year course form and first time out form he runs Study The Stars. The other to consider is Ralph Beckett’s Speedful who again has good recent form and first time out form as he has larger sample this becomes the selection.
Selection: Speedful (4.0) Next Best: Study The Stars (13)
17.30 Class 5 Handicap 3 Yr Old 7f
A few of these appeal but have been ruled out with higher draws and held up run styles, so the two with inside draws are Dashing Roger and Miss Villanelle, Dashing Roger is an obvious pick with a winning last time at Lingfield by a neck goes up 4lbs for that, Hollie Doyle a bonus especially at Lingfield. Charlie Hills runs Miss Villanelle the last run at Newcastle was not best placed on that occasion won on handicap debut at Newbury when leading all the way, hoping that Jim Crowley will adopt similar tactics today. Also of note is Claudius Secundus who led last time when finishing second at Lingfield.
Selection: Dashing Roger (4.0) Next Best: Miss Villanelle (6.0)
18.00 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr+ 7f
This event is for older horses over 7f, 8 of the 12 have won or been placed last time and quite a few have decent Kempton Park records, a tricky one to solve to say the least ! Two have also run well since the 1/6/20. Tintoretto won over CD back in March when favourite, up 4lbs for that but horse appears to be on the improve and stayed on nicely, Tom Marquand rides again. My next best is Soar Above who also won here last time over 7f, he goes well here (6/12) won easily last time and although has a 7lb rise looks like this can be overcome.
Selection Tintoretto (9) Next Best Soar Above (11)
Dark Scimitar has the best form on display in this race with a second at Wolverhampton back in February, he didn’t run as well next time when favourite and finishing 8½ lengths behind. The other that could be considered on form is Quickthorn who recorded a reasonable time in in a decent maiden at Newmarket (Soft) when 7 ½ lengths behind, was not fancied on first two runs so check on the market would be wise. Sir Michael Stoute has Crossing The Bar and is in good form, Louis Steward rides and these two have had some success together over the last year (8/36).
Selection Crossing The Bar (3) Next Dark Scimitar (6.5)
19.00 Class 5 Maiden 3-5Yr Old 1m3f
Three of these look of interest when the betting is issued, Make Haste Slowly, Bo Taifan and Cousin Rosaura. With so little form there is some scope in looking at the trainer statistics David Elsworth does well at Kempton especially when running off a layoff. While Bo Taifan showed nothing on debut but the combination of Hughes/Kelly is of note and Richard Hughes does well at this track, stable has started well too. James Fanshawe is another with a good record here and often has his runners ready of their first start (5/59) he runs Cousin Rosaura.
Selection Make Haste Slowly (11) Cousin Rosaura (8.0)
19.30 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr + 1m4f
Lots of horses that have been hurdling take their chance here, Beat The Judge has been some decent NH events, the two that made most appeal are last time winner Crimson King hasn’t won that often but has been placed 5 of the 17 starts. Up 4lbs for this initial win and hoping there will be more improvement, Cieren Fallon rides. Less obvious is Glendun who ran well here in March after a spell hurdling, ran well that day, appears to go well off a layoff and trainer good record with horses off a layoff.
Selection Crimson King (4.5) Glendun (9)
20.00 Class 3 Fillies Handicap 3 Yr + 6f
Eight go to post for this event over 6f. Fizzy Feet will be popular after two Class 3 wins at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, she likes to be ridden up with the pace or on the front. Hollie Doyle is aboard once again and has ridden her on the last three occasions. While Fizzy Feet has yet to run at Kempton the other pace horse in the race is Buy Me Back who won a Class 5 event over CD leading all the way to win quite comfortably however the handicapper has put her up 10lbs. With a potential pace duel up front it may pay to look to Burmese Waltz who raced prominently when racing in Ireland. Archie Watson has a good record when a horse changes to his yard and is in great form just now, she is also drawn in 1.
Selection Burmese Waltz (3.0) Next Best Fizzy Feet (4.0)
20.30 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr + 6f
Private Matter has been running most of the winter at Southwell, his last race was at Lingfield when faded after leading, he may have needed that run and should be one to consider here as the pace angle. However, the selection will be May Remain who ran here last week when second to Hans Solo Berger ran on quite encouragingly to get the runner up spot. Trainer does well with horses running again in a week (4/17). Cieran Fallon aboard is another positive.
Selection May Remain (3.5) Next Best Private Matter (11)
21.00 Class 6 Handicap 3 Yr 1m 4f
Not a lot of reasonable form for this event, only 4 of the 12 having been placed in a race, Camouflaged came second last time in a handicap at Chelmsford, this looks the strongest form here and of note is Adam Kirby in the saddle, he is 3/17 for Mark Johnston and does ride this track well. Critique was also placed last time in a handicap just beaten a 1/4 length goes up 2 lbs for that (as does Camouflage). Sir Mark Prescott loves a first time handicap and uses Ryan Tate to good effect, if this one is ready to go expect some movement in the market. Another to note is Alan King’s Party Political who has his string in good heart and is going well with Martin Harley in the plate.
Selection Camouflage (3.25) Next Best Critique (4.3)
Lots of variety on this card, 2 Class 1s and some Class 6s. Hope this assists you with finding a view winners.
13.00 Class 5 Handicap 3 Yr Old 5f
Kempton 5f sprints generally revolve around those drawn low, however horses that can get away from the gate quickly can also do well, in fact those that are ridden prominently are worth an extra look. It is likely that Newyorkstateofmind will be well fancied a last time winner over CD and now berthed in stall 1, up 7 lbs for that run. However, there may be some value in Agent Shiftwell who has never run here but won at Wolves leading all the way, now makes his debut in a handicap however. The other drawn low is Never Dark, Andrew Balding goes well with horses off a layoff on the AW (20% Win 44% Place) and a good record first time in a handicap (12%).
Selection: Newyorkstateofmind (4.0) Next Best: Never Dark (4.5)
13.35 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr + 5f
Older sprinters on parade here, again the key is to look for those with prominent run styles, this shows quite a few, Kodiak Attack looks interesting – apprentice ridden the last twice and finished close up both times, drawn 8 so would expect this one not to be too well favoured. George Margason does OK off a lay off and he runs Spirited Guest he had a poor run at Southwell last time but has been in good heart elsewhere on other AW tracks before that.
Selection Kodiak Attack (4.3) Next Best Spirited Guest (4.5)
14.10 Class 5 Fillies Novice 3Yr + 1m2f
A race that is confined to horses that have been notified to the BHA. Some likely useful horses here but the one with the best form to date is Gold Wand who ran at Doncaster when a beaten 6/4F this race has worked out OK. Sir Michael Stoute has two debutants and looking at these preference is for Ryan Moore’s ride.
Selection Gold Wand (3.5) Next Best Dusk (3.0)
14.45 Class 1 Group 3 3 Yr 1m 2f
An interesting race on the AW, plenty of class on show Max Vega, Born With Pride, Highland Chief and Pyledriver have all Class 1 form. Max Vega recorded the best RPR and is clear by 9lbs. Highland Chief and Pyledriver also have decent TS but not on their most recent runs. Likely the money will revolve around Gosden / Dettori Hypothetical, for me Max Vega and Pyledriver are the ones to look at.
Selection Max Vega (4) Pyledriver (10)
15.20 Class 5 Handicap 4 Yr + 7f
Like the earlier sprint horses that race on the lead or prominent are favoured over this trip. How Bizarre, Merweb, Plunger and Sir Roderic race up with the pace. Most of these are drawn high Adam Kirby rides How Bizarre and does well from the front (unraced at Kempton) the other that should go well is Sir Roderic who’s trainer has a reasonable record for horses coming off a layoff. Also Oloroso is one that many will be looking at trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by 3 lb claimer Joshua Bryan.
Selection How Bizarre (12) Sir Roderic (17)
15.55 Class 1 Listed Race 3 Yr + 1m
14 runners go to post for this decent event. Billesdon Brook has the highest official rating here 11lbs clear of Nazeef. Billesdon Brook is 1/1 here however 7f looks more her distance. None of the others have any form here, Nazeef has won her last three starts one at Chelmsford, this looks a step up but appears on the upgrade. Frankie rides Scentasia for John Gosden who has won two easily at Lingfield both in this grade.
Selection Billesdon Brook (4) Next Best Scentasia (3)
1630 Class 4 Handicap 4 Yr + 1m
Dean Ivory has Daddy’s Daughter which is likely to lead, looks a little headstrong and hasn’t run that well of late. Another horse with pace is George Scott’s Earth And Sky trainer does reasonably well off a lay off and has winning form over CD still to score in this grade however. Highfaluting has CD winning form and looks in good heart with 2 wins and 2 places over 7f and 8f here.
Selection Earth And Sky (8) Next Best Highfaluting (5)
1705 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr + 1m
There are two prominent runners here and both look they have a reasonable chance although in Class 6 events certainty is a little less guaranteed. Steal The Scene is in great form winning his last 3 up another 2lbs for the latest win (short head). Kevin Frost trains is 10% AW Win SR with horses off a layoff. The next best is Sir Plato where Adam Kirby and B Millman team up, we know that AK does well from the front and again trainer can find the odd decent priced winners off a lay off.
Selection Steal The Scene (3.75) Next Best Sir Plato (25)
1740 Class 6 Handicap 4 Yr + 6f
Glamorous Crescent now runs for C Mason and has some useful form here over 7f on last two starts. Rossa Ryan is on board and has the 3 draw, others that look like they will race up with the pace are It Must Be Faith and Showmethewayavrilo, the latter has been off for 596 days and It Must Be Faith is ridden by Jane Elliot (was previously ridden by Erika Parkinson). However the selection will be another for Adam Kirby with Perfect Symphony who has been running well at Lingfield lately.
For those of you who stumbled across this, I am a regular at Kempton Park provide a tip sheet for races at Kempton. Obviously gutted not to be at Kempton but looking forward to getting back when it is safe to do so. Hope there’s a few winners amongst them. Good luck everyone and bet wisely…
13.00 Class 5 Maiden 3 Yr Old + 1m2f
Plenty of top stables with representatives here, of those with form Latin Knight ran well here on debut but didn’t show much at Southwell when the saddle slipped. Fahad is the other that has some reasonable form a 4th at Sandown last July. Hold Fast has two runs at Goodwood (previously running in decent chases). Wirraway and Tamaris appeal best of those unraced, trainers have good record of getting horses placed here on debut.
Selection Wirraway (3.0) Next Best Fahad (5.0) The figures in brackets are the minimum price you should accept (decimal odds 3.0 = 2/1).
13.35 Class 5 Handicap 1m 2f
Trainers’ records with horses off a lay off on the AW have shown that James Fanshawe has the best record although not profitable, others that do well are Richard Fahey, Mrs H Main and Willie Jarvis. Those with some recent form are Junderstand, Sootability and Rotherwick. Those best in grade,class course distance etc are Junderstand and Olympic Warrior and Dawdry. Olympic Conqueror is likely to be favourite as he won his last race here over 12f. However, Rotherwick was behind and looks to have a better chance at the weights. Junderstand ran well back in September over 11f here.
Selection Rotherwick (8.0) Next Best Junderstand (12)
14.10 Class 4 Handicap 5f
Kempton 5f sprints generally revolve around those drawn low, however horses that can get away from the gate quickly can also do well, in fact those that are ridden prominently are worth an extra look. Two horse meet those criteria, Mercenary Rose drawn in 9, and Grandfather Tom drawn 1. Both are usually ridden from the front. Charlie Hills, Paul Cole, George Scott and Robert Cowell do well with horses off a lay off. Scott’s Jack The Truth appears to have a good record when coming off a lay off so will put that in the mix.
Selection Mercenary Rose (4.0) Next Best Jack The Truth (10)
14.45 Class 5 Maiden 2 Yr Old 6f
A field of unraced 2 year olds, I have looked at trainers that have a good record for unraced 2 year olds on the AW. Archie Watson has 26% win SR with 46% place SR. Messrs Hannon, Beckett and Johnston all have double figure win rates, with Fellowes, Burrows having commendable place SRs. The market will be key here, but those venturing with a placepot the selections I would put forward are
Selection Science (3.5) Next Best Kawaalees (3.0)
15.20 Class 5 Maiden 3 Yr Old + 6f
Kempton’s 6f while not on the inner circuit does tend to favour horses that can lead or race prominently. Half the field have already raced and of those Cold Front from the Willie Haggas stable looks the one after a decent effort at Newbury. Saeed Bin Suroor has a great record at Kempton and runs City Walk who raced keenly at Newmarket in April last year. Captivated is ex John Gosden and ran OK over CD back in October. Trainers with good debutant records for 3 Yr Old + on the AW include Archie Watson (Tagovailoa) along with Roger Charlton does well on getting his debutants placed (30% place SR).
Selection Cold Front (3.0) Next Best Tagovailoa (6.0)
15.55 Class 5 Maiden 3 Yr Old 1m
Two with decent form are Sir Michael Stoute’s First Receiver who ran well over CD in November, Ryan Moore rides. The other is Imrahor from the Palmer yard who has a good SR here. Both are drawn high which may be a slight disadvantage of the newcomers Ralph Beckett (Deft) and Ed Vaughan does well getting his placed (War Cross).
Selection First Receiver (2.375) Imrahor (3.0)
16.30 Class 5 Maiden 3yr Old + 1m4f
Frankie Dettori has his only ride of the day with Galsworthy and this looks a solid chance from the Gosden stable. Ran well at Newcastle and beaten fav on debut at Newmarket (Frankie rode). Of the others with race form is Jazz Party who ran OK at Lingfield on debut. Always wise to keep an eye on John Gosden’s second string – he has a 49% place SR on the AW for debutants 3yr +. No surprise if Roger Varian’s Retrospect runs well on debut as he has an 18% Win and 41% place SR for this type of event for debutants on the AW.
Selection Galsworthy (2.2) Retrospect (7.0)
17.05 Class 5 Handicap 1m 4f
Typical Kempton fare, Trainers that do well off a lay-off when running on the AW are A King, P Phelan with 12% Win SR, A King P Phelan and R Fahey also do well with getting horses placed. Worth noting that Harry Fry has an ex Stoute inmate (London Eye). Malika I Jahan is in a handicap for the first time. However I like the look of Singing The Blues who is very consistent, rare poor run last time on heavy going. Positive jockey booking with Oisin Murphy aboard. The next best is Alan King’s Ned Pepper who could run well.
Selection Singing The Blues (8.0) Ned Pepper (11)
17.40 Class 6 Handicap 3Yr Old 6f
So here we are Race 9, again horse ridden up with the pace and drawn low are preferred. Charlie Hills’ Spurofthemoment has the inside draw and has run close to the pace previously. Charlie has a good strike rate first time in handicaps and not bad off a lay-off. Others include Hugo Palmer’s Gigi’sBeach who has also been ridden up with the pace and is drawn 5. Amanda Perret’s Gift Of Youth may well get a place. Rodney Le Roc was a last time winner just before the lockdown now drawn 11 and tends to run mid-div may not be suited here.
Selection Spurofthemoment (4.0) Next Best Gigi’s Beach (5.0)
Plenty of decent action tonight, plenty of seconds last week so lets see if we can find a few winners this week.
4.55 Class 2 event over 10f and looks a great contest with 4 last time winners with 2 of them going for 5 timers. All have decent speed and RPR ratings which indicates this will be close, a case can be made for Jamie Spencer’s mount who needs a better pace to run at and was apprentice ridden the last two occasions. However with the Johnston team in fine form I am going with Matterhorn to win again, he recorded the best AW TS of all these at Chelmsford but has never run here.
Selection Matterhorn Next Best Nonios
5.30 Big change in class from the last race with a class 7 event, two last time winners at the top of the handicap, Purple Paddy won a class 6 event easily last time over CD has to be feared now in a class 7 goes up 5lb. However the one I am going to take a chance on is Runaicoht who hasn’t shown a lot recently but drops to a class 7 where he is 1/3 with the other runs having been placed he is also now 3lbs below his last winning mark and with Oisin Murphy aboard.
Selection Runaicoht Next Best Purple Paddy
6.00 I’m Available showed some promise on debut at Kempton and then got beaten when favourite (Buick rode) next time at Lingfield here’s hoping that the return to the Sunbury track will spark a little improvement. Roma Bangkok (Marco Botti) was a shock winner at Chelmsford and recorded a decent time one definitely to keep the right side of.
Selection I’m Available Next Best Roma Bangkok
6.30 This division doesn’t look like as clear cut as the first, Don Jupp is also trained by Marco Botti and won well here easily when a well back favourite. However with the 7lb penalty the one that is taken to oppose it is Majestic Dawn who is trained by Paul Cole, ran well at Chelmsford when beaten by a previous winner should come on for that run.
Selection Majestic Dawn Next Best Don Jupp
7.00 A Class 2 Conditions race won by Gronkowski last time, which I believe gets an entry into the Kentucky Derby, this race has an odd feel for me with no in form horse on show and plenty with question marks. For that reason I am going to select Target Zone who won a maiden here earlier in the year in a decent time, this looks one that could improve. I am always suspcious of fast times at Southwell but Jahbarth won well there last time an obvious danger.
Selection Target Zone Next Best Jahbath
7.30 The draw may be of significance here and Global Tango has been running better than the form figures suggest and has been close to the finish on the last two runs, the handicapper has dropped him 2lbs for that too so that will help, drawn 2 as well. Compass Scooby and In The Red are both drawn wide, the former is 2nd off a layoff and Oisin Murphy rides again In The Red recorded a good time last time. I will make Compass Scooby the next best.
Selection Global Tango Next Best Compass Scooby
8.00 Typical Kempton fare for the last two events, no last time winners but this still looks competitive, Dean Ivory’s Dark Magic looked unlucky last time with Adam Kirby getting touched off by a short head, he rides again and hope he make amends. However the selection is Secret Potion who has been up and down in trip recently, form doesn’t look great but a combination of an in form trainer and a decent draw could make this the winner.
Selection Secret Potion Next Best Dark Magic
8.30 This doesn’t look like a race to get too involved with however if push comes to shove and you are desperate for a bet, Maximum Power was the closest to the line last time beaten 3/4 length here in February has a reasonable draw too. Also drawn inside is Miracle Garden and with Tom Marquand on for Mark Usher this appeals more than some of the others.